Friday, July 04, 2008

Obama in NC

On this July 4, it seems fitting to focus on elections in the U.S. The Charlotte Observer has an article discussing Obama's chances in North Carolina. Democratic strategists say that a Democratic candidate must win at least 40% of the white vote, in addition to the vast majority of the black vote, to win the state.

Obama has shown interest in NC, and his campaign will push hard to get people registered. In the days leading up to the primary, we received 3-4 robocalls exhorting people to register. The key point, though, is that getting more African Americans to the polls still isn't enough--a candidate needs to really cut into that white vote. In 2004, Kerry received 27% of the white vote.

2 comments:

Anonymous,  12:16 PM  

That 40% figure for needed white vote is pretty standard. Actually, that might be a little high. We can assume record high black turnout, but I'm not sure we can assume record high white turnout. Nonetheless, we're likely to see Obama get 95% of the black vote, so 40% of the white vote and he definitely win; he might only need 35%.

Greg Weeks 1:13 PM  

Ironic that I write about the black vote on the same day that Jesse Helms dies.

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