Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Chilean politics on 9/11

Since this is a blog focusing largely on Latin America, it is fitting to discuss Chile on September 11. The Socialist Party seems to be going through a personality crisis, between those who want to reclaim some of the more activist energy of the pre-dictatorship era, while others (including Bachelet) see a key lesson of 9/11/73 as the need for consensus-building before moving forward with policies.

A recent Adimark poll puts Bachelet’s approval rating as 39.1% in August, while I had mentioned an Angus Reid poll showing her at 51% for the same month. Given the intense criticisms, street demonstrations, and coalitional conflict, the lower figure (which they attribute to the “Transantiago effect”) makes more sense. At my LASA panel there was considerable discussion about failures of management, as Bachelet named poorly qualified people to important posts, and a perception that some ministries are very inefficient. Her cabinet shufflings reflect the problems that emerged as a result.

One person in the audience raised the possibility (which, as he pointed out, could be considered heresy) that change will only come if the Alianza wins, i.e. there is a major political shake-up. The Alianza is so divided that I am not even sure what their policy priorities would be. After all, they can hardly make Chile more market oriented.

2 comments:

Anonymous,  1:04 PM  

I was at a luncheon recently and one of the attendees posed an interesting question to the speaker, who was UDI (and whose name I don't remember):

"Why has the Chilean right essentially retreated from the middle ground and allowed the left to position themselves as the center-left government? The left can therefore capture the middle of the road, when the right should be able to do this as well. However, the leaders on the right insist on referring to the party as the "right" party, which alienates the center voters. Why can't they start calling the Alianza the center right?"

It's a good point. Until the right can come up with a platform that captures the center of Chile, they will continue to be outmaneuvered by the left.

The speaker also made the comparison between the Alianza and the "right" in the US. In the US, the right stands for a) defense, b) low taxes, and c) religion. In Chile, the right does not really stand for anything except the rich. And that is no way to get elected.

Greg Weeks 2:40 PM  

I think that last point is the most critical for the Alianza--even more than standing for the rich, they stand for not being the Concertación, which is also not a great way to get elected.

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